Brexit means Brexit: a constructionist analysis

Brexit or Bremain? Evidence from bubble analysis

We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23 June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series sensitive to the Brexit/Bremain scenario, representative of multiple asset classes. We found that equity an...

Brexit and health services.

Brexit and Translational Research

In a historic referendum on June 23, 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU) after more than four decades of membership. For the time being, the UK is still a member of the EU until the UK government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty–which probably won't happen before the end of 2016. A minimum of 2 years of negotiations will follow before theUK ceases to be an EUmember. This...

Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit

In this paper we develop a well-established financial model to investigate whether bubbles were present in opinion polls and betting markets prior to the UK’s vote on EU membership on 23 June 2016. The importance of our contribution is threefold. Firstly, our continuous-time model allows for irregularly spaced time series—a common feature of polling data. Secondly, we build on qualitative compa...

The Topological "Shape" of Brexit

Persistent homology is a method from computational algebraic topology that can be used to study the “shape” of data. We illustrate two filtrations — the weight rank clique filtration and the Vietoris–Rips (VR) filtration — that are commonly used in persistent homology, and we apply these filtrations to a pair of data sets that are both related to the 2016 European Union “Brexit” referendum in t...